Hybrid threats to India

1

CHAPTER-I

INTRODUCTION

1.The close of the last century and the beginning of this century have exposed us to what can be termed as a radical shift in the way wars are fought between belligerents. The world at large is no more exposed to conflicts of the type such as state to state or between groups of states. The conflicts that are gaining prominence are sub-conventional ones that range from intra state conflicts, group clashes and global terrorism to name a few. The global community is being confronted with conflict in a variety of new dimensions and forms that pure classification of the type of threat is becoming difficult at times.

2.The present global security environment is markedly varied from what it was about a decade and a half ago. The emerging security challenges in today’s globalised world are not inter-state rivalry based but rather are of economic, demographic and societal tension based which transcend national boundaries of states. Modern day conflicts arise not due to ideological differences between countries but rather they are increasingly occurring due to issues ranging from weak and illegitimate state institutions, displacement and marginalisation of indigenous people and ineffective regional security arrangements amongst other factors.[1]

3. The operational environment of the future will be characterised by a range of hybrid threats which are a combination of regular forces, irregular elements, terrorist outfits and criminal groups who decentralise and syndicate against a nation state and who possess capabilities and hardware previously monopolised by nation states. These hybrid threats create a more competitive security environment and it is for these threats that nations across the globe must prepare for.[2]

4.A growing nation like India is liable to face threats both from outside as well as from within. The array of hybrid threats in the modern day range from simple drug cartels to organised terrorist groups to even a small bunch of hacktivists holed up in a basement. The technological capabilities and wherewithal of these threats are also varied in nature. Our Armed Forces are likely to be drawn into combating threats to the Nation at all levels and of varied degree of severity. The Armed Forces thus need a robust mechanism to counter threats to the country from the entire available threat spectrum especially in the hybrid domain.

METHODOLOGY

Statement of the Problem

5.The Indian Armed Forces have embarked on a modernisation drive which will see an increase in inventories of all three services. This expansion in equipment and manpower is directed more towards combating external conventional threats and less towards other types of emerging threats to the nation both internal and external. There is a need to examine the modernisation drive being undertaken by the Indian Armed Forces and analyse the effectiveness of the planned expansion to counter emerging hybrid threats to the country.

Hypothesis

6.The Indian Armed Forces need to formulate and institute Joint structures to fight the emerging hybrid threats which pose a grave danger to the very fabric of Indian society.

Justification of the Study

7.India as a nation is passing through a crucial time in its development. It is one of the fastest growing economies with the expectation of becoming the world economic power by year 2050 replacing USA and second only may be to China. Her economic and strategic interests lie from the inland countries of the Central Asia and China in north to the vast Indian Ocean Region and Antarctica in south. Its growing influence in the region and its economic growth have been a source of constant worry to its neighbours who see it as a source of threat. Our adversaries have been trying to destablilise our nation by waging wars against us both the conventional and proxy realm. The proxy element of this war has also spawned various sub constituents that exert influence in various domains like cyberspace and economic infrastructure.

8.Over a period of time our nation has seen a rise in Left Wing Extremist activity in the entire country. Cyber terror groups have also been targeting our government websites and infrastructure gateways periodically. An organised integrated mechanism to counter all these threats, along with the conventional threat to our country is not present at the present moment in a cohesive form. Various arms of the government have instituted measures to counter some elements of hybrid threats but not all and certainly not in an integrated from. The Armed Forces who are the primary stakeholders in upholding the country’s security environment should play a major role in such a mechanism if it ever were to be formed.

Scope

9.The study will aim to first explore the subject of emergence of the phenomenon of Hybrid Warfare particularly its genesis and its impact on global security framework and also aim to study a few instances of Hybrid Warfare from history. This study will also analyse the modernisation drive planned to be undertaken by the Indian Armed Forces and its ability to counter emerging hybrid threats in the Indian scenario. In the end the study will aim to suggest a future Joint structure required to counter hybrid threats to our country.

Methods of Data Collection

10.Exploratory Research method has been resorted to for the collection of data. Data has been collected mainly from primary and secondary sources of information in the Defence Services Staff College Library and from the internet. The nature of the topic being contemporary, maximum data perused has been from current periodicals, conference proceedings and online military field manuals. Bibliography of reference sources is appended at the end of the paper. The data for this research was obtained through the following sources:-

(a)Books and Reports.

(b)Periodicals and Magazines.

(c)Websites.

(d)Internet Papers.

(e)Field manuals of leading armies of the World as accessed through Internet.

Organisation of the Dissertation (Chapterisation)

11.The topic has been researched under the following heads:

(a)Chapter I: Introduction& Methodology. It gives an Introduction to the study and also the methodology of undertaking the study.

(b)Chapter II: Hybrid Threats: New Dimension in Asymmetric Conflict. This chapter discusses the topic of hybrid threats. Detailed classification and examples from contemporary times will be given. A few case studies of force asymmetry being neutralised by adopting hybrid warfare will be discussed in brief.

(c)Chapter III: Emerging Hybrid Threat Trends World Over and Implications to India. This chapter will discuss the emergence of the Hybrid threat phenomenon in the global scenario. This chapter will also discuss the how India is dealing with rise of insurgency, Left Wing Extremism and cyber terrorism. Implications for India when faced with the spectrum of hybrid threats will also be discussed in this chapter.

(d)Chapter IV: Indian Armed Forces Modernisation Plan. This chapter will discuss the modernisation plan of Indian Armed Forces to counter the future conventional threats and whether it has the ability to tackle emerging hybrid threats to our country.

(e)Chapter V: Need for Joint Structures to Counter Hybrid Threats in India. This chapter will deal with the subject of the need of Joint Military or Military- Civil structure to fight hybrid threats to our country.

(f)Chapter VI: Suggested Joint Structure. This chapter will suggest a joint setup that can be worked out to combat future hybrid threats to the country. This chapter will also suggest a joint civil-military structure that can be formed using all the arms and agencies of the government.

(g)Chapter VII: Conclusion

[1] Manekshaw Papers No 18/2010, Changing Nature of Conflict: Trends and Responses, CLAWS , www.claws.in ( accessed on 18 Aug 14)

[2] U.S. Army’s Field Manual 3.0 : Operations, Feb 2011, Online Copy, http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/adp3_0.pdf (accessed on 12 Aug 14)